October 1 National Fire Potential Outlook

Attached is the October 1 National Fire Potential Outlook:  http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf.

While it states that the fire season is over in the Northern Rockies: 

Northern Rockies: Significant wildland fire potential will be normal for the outlook period October, November, and December 2015 through January 2016.

Wet storms in early September greatly reduced fire potential with most indices across the geographic area near normal conditions. Some increases occurred with the warm and dry conditions over southeastern and south central Montana but shorter days and cooler nights will keep fuel moisture rising into the fall. Some evidence of drought stress in live vegetation across the western half of the area will likely be a factor for the 2016 fire season. El Niño conditions deep into the winter suggest poor snow conditions and continuation of drought across the area.

Fire season for 2015 is essentially over for the Northern Rockies. However, significant wind events during the fall-to-winter transition could produce brief fire concerns in the fine fuels east of the continental divide until snow falls. This will likely be delayed given the forecast of El Niño conditions.

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